WEEKLY WEALTH REPORT
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Global brokerage firm Morgan Stanley on Thursday said that Indian markets are poised for a strong rally with Sensex likely to touch 95,000 level by December 2026.
In its latest India Equity Strategy Playbook report, the brokerage firm said that the current combination of depressed valuations, improving earnings momentum and cautious investor positioning reflects conditions typically seen near the end of market downturns.
• Morgan Stanley: Projects a base-case target of 95,000 (50% probability), driven by an earnings recovery and policy stability.
• Bull-Case Scenario: Some analysts see a potential surge to 1,07,000 if global oil prices drop significantly and global growth remains strong (30% probability).
• Bear-Case Scenario: If oil prices spike above $100 or a global recession occurs, the index could remain stagnant near 76,000 (20% probability).`
A major factor behind its bullish outlook is the revival in the earnings cycle. High-frequency indicators point to strengthening trends across consumption, investment and services, even as market expectations remain subdued, the brokerage noted.
On valuations, Morgan Stanley pointed out that the Sensex is currently trading at its cheapest level when measured against gold, a long-term indicator often associated with major market turning points.
Moreover, India's relative price-to-book multiples are near historical lows, even as macroeconomic stability improves and policy uncertainty remains limited.
While risks from geopolitical tensions and global growth remain, Morgan Stanley believes the broader outlook points towards a sustained market recovery.
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WEEKLY MARKET PULSE
The Indian stock market recorded its best weekly performance in over five years during the week of April 6–10, 2026. Both the Sensex and Nifty 50 snapped a six-week losing streak, surging nearly 6% as geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran eased.
US-Iran Ceasefire: A two-week ceasefire agreement significantly reduced market volatility and supported a "risk-on" investor sentiment.
Cooling Oil Prices: Brent crude prices dropped toward $100 per barrel as supply disruption fears eased, benefiting energy-dependent emerging markets like India.
Sector Performance: The rally was primarily led by Banking, Financials, and Auto sectors.
Bank Nifty jumped roughly 8.5% over the week.
IT stocks lagged slightly as investors engaged in profit-booking following TCS quarterly results.
Volatility Decline: The India VIX crashed roughly 20% over the week, indicating growing investor confidence in market stability
Gold Prices slightly moved up to Rs 14,100 for 22K Gold and Silver prices also saw a slight rise and settled around 2,65,000 Per KG
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