May 26, 2025

Weekly Wealth Report Issue 194, Weekly Wealth Newsletter: 26th May 2025 – 2nd June 2025 (Weekly Wealth Newsletter and a Private Circulation from Creating Wealth Company)                                                                                Curated by Mr. Sathish Kumar Founder – Creating Wealth Company Crorepathi Creator | Financial Consultant | Author | Speaker | Columnist | Youtuber Phone – 9841058689   Mail – creatingwealthadvisory@gmail.com     Web – www.sathishspeaks.com Sensex Can Hit 1,00,000? Morgan Stanley Report! Download this NewsLetter as a PDF DOWNLOAD AS PDF The recent correction in the Indian stock market from the September 2024 highs presents a compelling opportunity to invest in the country’s long-term growth story, according to global brokerage Morgan Stanley. While the firm has revised its base case Sensex target for June 2026, it also predicts the index reaching the 1,00,000 mark under its bull case scenario.  In its latest outlook, Morgan Stanley has set the Sensex base case target of 89,000 by June 2026, reflecting an 8% upside from current levels. However, under its bull case scenario, which it assigns a 30% probability.  This assumes sustained improvements in India’s macroeconomic stability through fiscal consolidation, rising private sector investment, and a positive real growth-real interest rate gap. A stable domestic growth outlook, absence of a US recession, and moderate oil prices are also factored into the forecast.  In the bull case, Morgan Stanley envisions a more favourable macro and policy environment, leading to the Sensex reaching 1,00,000 by June 2026.  Key assumptions include crude oil prices remaining consistently below $65 per barrel, allowing for further monetary easing by the RBI, and a resolution of global trade tensions through reversals in tariff policies. Additionally, unexpected policy reforms—such as GST rate cuts and progress on agricultural reforms—could provide further tailwinds.  The report highlights that the current environment is likely to be a “stock pickers’ market”, diverging from the macro-driven rallies observed since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic.  The brokerage is overweight on Financials, Consumer Discretionary, and Industrials, while maintaining an underweight stance on Energy, Materials, Utilities, and Healthcare.  However, What Can Go Wrong With Equities? Morgan Stanley assigns a 20% probability to its bear case, in which the Sensex drops to 70,000 by June 2026. This scenario assumes a sharp rise in crude oil prices above $100 per barrel, leading to monetary tightening by the RBI to maintain macroeconomic stability. It also factors in a significant global growth slowdown, including a recession in the US. Under these conditions, earnings growth is expected to moderate to 15% annually through FY28, with a noticeable deceleration in FY26. Equity valuations are also likely to compress in response to deteriorating macro fundamentals. We recommend to increase your SIP and to Stay Invested for Long Term Successful investment strategy requires regular reviewing and investor should buy funds at lower levels you can always reach us @ 78100 79946 for your portfolio review and rebalance Weekly Market Pulse Indian equity benchmarks ended higher on Friday, supported by gains in FMCG stocks and easing US Treasury yields that reduced concerns about a potential US Federal Reserve rate hike. India has overtaken Japan to become the world’s fourth-largest economy, NITI Aayog Chief Executive Officer (CEO) BVR Subrahmanyam said, citing data by the International Monetary Fund at a press conference of the 10th NITI Aayog Governing Council Meeting on Viksit Rajya for Viksit Bharat 2047. Domestic equity markets rose after witnessing a fall in the previous week as key benchmark indices BSE Sensex and Nifty 50 rose 8.36% and 8.21%, respectively for the Year 2025. The rally was broad-based as the mid-cap segment and the small-cap segment both closed the week in the green. Domestic equity markets rallied as sentiment improved following an agreement between India and Pakistan to cease all military actions on land, air, and sea, effective immediately from May 10, 2025 and improved trade sentiment with US and China. Mutual Fund Corner Invesco Large Cap Fund Given the current volatility in the markets, large cap stocks are appearing attractive thanks to their resilience and relative stability. Invesco India Large Cap Fund invests in companies that can steer growth through all market conditions and potentially deliver consistent results and stay ahead in the long term. Why to Invest in Invesco Large Cap Fund?1. Diversified Portfolio – Atleast 80% of Net Assets will be Invested in Large Cap Companies2. Seek Opportunities from Growth – Predominantly invests in growth stocks with exposure of few value opportunities 3. Alpha Generation – This fund aims to generate returns from Stock Selection and Sector Allocation4. Potential ROE – Seeks to Invest in companies with potential Return on Equity (ROE – Industry Leading Companies) To invest in SIP & in Mutual Funds Click the link and start your investments instantly ( You can also call us @ 78100 79946 ) Start your Investment Mutual Fund Course All you want to learn about Mutual Funds Kickstart your Investment Journey of 2025 from here What You will Learn:1. A-Z of Mutual Funds2. Master the Art of SIP’s3. Build Wealth Like a Pro4. Recorded session contains 8 Chapters in Tamil Language5. Lifetime Access Join Mutual Fund Course My First 1 Crore Club Still Wondering how a salaried person/professionals can make 1cr? 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