A flare-up in tensions between Israel and Iran, persistent uncertainty around the US tariff policy, and foreign capital outflows weighed heavily on the Indian Stock Market Last week.

For the week ended June 13, the Nifty 50 declined 1.14 per cent, while the Sensex fell 1.30%. Broader market also declined but they still outperformed. The BSE Midcap index fell 0.90%, while the BSE Small cap fell 0.13%.


The Indian equity market witnessed heightened volatility last week, ultimately closing in the red. Early optimism, driven by progress in US–China trade negotiations, was overshadowed by escalating geopolitical tensions after Israel launched a strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. This development sparked a global risk-off sentiment, leading to a rally in safe-haven assets such as gold and US bonds.

Let’s take a look at five key factors that will dictate the market trend in the coming week.

1. Israel-Iran News

Tensions in the Middle East have been escalating in recent days, raising concerns that the Israel-Iran conflict could intensify and broaden in scope.Washington is moving towards more direct involvement in the Israel-Iran episode as the US military is shooting down Iranian missiles fired at Israel, in response to Israel’s attacks on Iran’s nuclear sites and military leaders. Even
UK is moving military assets, including jets, to the Middle East for contingency support across the region.

2. US FOMC Meeting

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which will begin on June 17 and conclude on June 18, will be a key focus area for investors. US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May increased at a softer-than-expected pace of 0.1 per cent month-on-month and was 2.4 per cent year-on-year. Core CPI increased 0.1 per cent month-on-month and 2.8 per cent year-onyear, with the market continues to price in two Fed cuts in 2025. The probability of a cut next week is zero, with the next cut expected in October.

3. Crude Oil Prices

After a sharp 7 per cent surge in Brent Crude on Friday, investors will also focus on the trajectory of crude oil prices next week.
Brent crude oil futures gained $4.87, or 7.02 per cent, to settle at $74.23 a barrel after earlier soaring over 13 per cent to an intraday high of $78.50 Crude oil prices are highly susceptible to further spikes. With Iran being OPEC’s third-largest oil producer, any further intensification of the conflict raises concerns about potential supply disruptions from the critical Middle East region.

4. FPIs’ Movement

Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have emerged as the net sellers of Indian equities in the cash segment for the current month. In June so far, they have sold off Indian stocks worth ₹4,812 crore in the cash segment amid geopolitical tensions, stretched domestic market valuations, and the rupee’s weakness. Continuous selling by FPIs will weigh on the Indian stock market, potentially keeping it in the lower orbit.

5. Macro meter

In the coming week, several key macroeconomic data, including India’s May WPI Inflation prints and trade balance data on June 16, the eurozone’s consumer price index data for May on June 18 and US initial jobless claims on June 18, will be on investors’ radar.

These are all short-term sentiments and indicators which can impact stock market, few of the indicators are already factored in stock market as forecast and the Sensex opened with 500pts upwards today ( 16th June 2025 ) ignoring all these trends because of Strong Internal Economic Indicators.

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